Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

$387.0K Total volumeEnds Dec 9, 2026Live

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Price History
Hike–Pause–Hike69%
Hike–Pause–Pause19%
Hike–Hike–Hike8%
Hike–Hike–Pause2%
Outcomes
$3.5K Volume$37.4K Liquidity▲1%
$4.5K Volume$54.1K Liquidity
$1.2K Volume$56.7K Liquidity▼4%
$773 Volume$55.3K Liquidity▼0%
$666 Volume$55.6K Liquidity▲0%
▼3%
▼8%
▼3%
▼4%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Comments (36)
Loading comments...
COPY TRADING

Copy top traders on this market

Find profitable traders active on this market and copy their trades in under 500ms — the fastest copy-trading on Polymarket.

Start Copying
Odds alertsHFT Elite

Get an in-app or Telegram alert when this market crosses your target price. Included in the Pro Workstation with HFT Elite.

Set an odds alertWhat's in the Pro Workstation?
Market Stats
Open Interest$87.7K
24h Volume$3.5K
Liquidity$37.4K
Spread1.0%